Well I’m kind of on a losing streak with my “Upset” picks, which is preventing me from having perfect 3-0 weeks.  So after I made my picks this week, I quickly checked them against the experts and found that four of them were considered upsets.

So how do I approach the games this week?  I have picked the wrong game three weeks in a row now, so I’m not feeling all that confident in my “Upset” picks.  If only there was a way I could avoid them altogether this week.

I’ve got a better idea.  Let’s use reverse psychology and pick two of them instead!

Don’t think that’s a great idea?  Too late.  It’s done.  Take a look!

This week’s Lock of the Week (13-2).

Okay, I’m tired of picking Seattle and Denver for this every week.  Good thing, too, since the Broncos forgot to show up in their own building this past Thursday.  And with the Seahawks on the road this week, I’m gonna’ stay away from them too.

No, I’ve decided to go with another up-and-coming star of a team this week.  With the hapless New York Jets coming to town, I’m taking the Carolina Panthers in this category this week.

I know, the Saints exposed the Panthers in so many ways last week, they should be easy prey for any team this week, right?  Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight!  (Sorry, I just couldn’t resist a little Dr. Evil!)

But seriously, these are the Jets.  They wouldn’t have a chance at home against a very pissed off Panthers team that would stop controlling their own destiny with a loss this week.  Do you really think they have any chance at all in Carolina?

Me neither!  This one will be over quickly.  The Panther defense will rise to the occasion, winning the turnover battle by at least three, while Cam and the boys will get back on track on the other side of the ball.

Look for a final score in the neighborhood of 41-13.

This week’s Upset of the Week (6-9).

Like I said in the opening section, I had four upsets to pick from.  Two of them are kind of ho-hum games, so I stayed away from the Vikings and Jaguars victories.

I decided to go with a real shocker that will upset the playoff picture even more than it is now.  I’m taking the Cleveland Browns over the visiting Chicago Bears.

Go ahead.  Get it out of your system.  I’ll wait………………..

Okay, are you done laughing?  Good.  Let’s get down to business.

First of all, yes I did see the Bear’s offense go off on the Cowboys last Monday night.  I saw McCown throw four TD passes and run another one in while Matt Forte touched the ball on three out of four plays in the second half to put the game out of reach.

But let’s be real.  We’re talking about the Dallas Cowboys defense.  There aren’t many college teams that couldn’t do the same thing against them.  Rumor has it they’re actually using Swiss cheese to plugs the holes in their secondary!

Okay, that one sucked, but you get my point!  This is a bad defense.

Enter the Cleveland Browns.  Granted, they don’t have a powerhouse offense, but they do have a defense.  For one thing, they’re only allowing 20 points per game.  They are allowing 3.5 yards per carry and less than one rushing TD per game.  The Bears better come with more than Matt Forte this week.

Listen, I agree that on paper, Chicago is the better team and they should win this game.  But something in the back of my mind is screaming upset.  I don’t know if it’s the fact that the Browns have a defense, or if it’s because the game is being played in Cleveland.

Maybe it’s the fact that after four weeks of McCown looking very good, he will be holding the clipboard this week while Cutler re-takes the helm.

Whatever the reason, I’ve got the Browns penciled in for the upset!

This week’s Game of the Week (9-6).

For those of you that were paying attention, you already know that I’m picking an upset in this category, too.  (If you still don’t understand, go back and start reading from the beginning.  It’s okay, we’ll wait for you!)

Are we all here now?  Good.  Now the only mystery is which upset am I picking for the Game of the Week.

Well, let’s look at the candidates for Game of the Week……

Wow, I just realized there aren’t many to choose from this week.  In fact there are only two games that would really fit that bill, and I’m not picking the Steelers over the Bengals.

So it looks like we’re heading to Detroit on Monday, as they host the defending champions Baltimore Ravens.

This should be a great game.  It’s two teams going in opposite directions, but both capable of having big nights.

The Lions have, at least on paper, the potentially most powerful offense in the league.  Key word here is “potentially”, since we’ve only seen it actually happen about three times this season.  They also have some very scary defensive lineman that could strike fear into any QB, RB or offensive lineman.

The problem is they have absolutely no discipline.  Every time they need a big play, they end up getting a big penalty.  I don’t care how good you are, if you lead the league in penalties, you aren’t any good.

Meanwhile, the Ravens started out the season slowly, allowing all of the nay-sayers to have their fun writing the Raven’s eulogy by week four.

However, something happened along the way.  Even though they lost several key players from last year’s championship squad, they began figuring out how to win games.  And after thirteen games, they find themselves sitting in the #6 spot, with an opportunity this week to solidify that spot with a win.

The Lions need a victory too, since they are currently tied with the Bears at the top of the pathetic NFC North division.  They don’t have a prayer at a wildcard berth, so they need to win the division to get into the playoffs.

So which team will come away with the W and a firm grip on a playoff spot?  My money is on the visiting Ravens.  After several turnovers and too many penalties, the Lions will lose by ten, and yet still have a shot at the division title!