Here I was, eagerly anticipating another 3-0 week.  I was feeling a bit cocky after correctly picking the Browns to upset the Ravens.  All I needed was a Packer home victory over the visiting Bears and I had it.

Then, in a flash, it was over.  My perfect record for the week was smashed when Aaron Rogers’ collarbone was, well, smashed!

Not only did that ensure a loss in one of my fantasy football leagues (I had a ten point lead and Jordy Nelson – he had Matt Forte), but it brought my high hopes of another perfect week down with a mighty crash.

So do I play it safe this week?  Do I pick the most heavily favored teams, just to get back on track?

C’mon, you should know me better than that.  Just wait ‘til you see who I picked this week!

This week’s Lock of the Week (9-0).

There were several games that looked tempting for this category, including Indianapolis over St. Louis and San Francisco over Carolina (which I think will be closer than most people think).

But I’ve decided to roll the dice and go with Tennessee over Jacksonville.

I know what you’re thinking.  How could picking Jacksonville to lose be a roll of the dice?  If anything is a certainty this season, it’s a Jaguar loss.

At first glance, I absolutely agree with you.  Jacksonville is probably the worst team in Florida, which, by default, means they are the worst team in the NFL (the three FLA teams are a combined 4-20 so far).

However, you can’t forget that we’re also talking about an up-and-down Titans team.  One week they look like legitimate contenders and the next week they look like a bad college team.

Yet, the Titans offense has actually shown signs of life recently, after being dismal at best early on.  The Jags may hang around for a while, but when the gun sounds after 60 minutes, expect the Titans to walk away with the W.

This week’s Upset of the Week (5-4).

Just like the last category, this one has four games to choose from.  That’s right, after several weeks of pretty much agreeing with Vegas, I’ve got four games that I disagree with them on this week.

Again, I could play it safe and go with one of the games that only has a two or three point spread, like Minnesota, Buffalo or Tampa Bay.  But I’d rather live on the edge.

I’m taking the Atlanta Falcons to upset the visiting Seattle Seahawks!

Go ahead; get it out of your system.  I’ll wait!

Okay, are you done laughing yet?  Can we talk?

Look, I know that I picked the Seahawks ten weeks ago to win the whole thing this year.  And I still believe they are one of the top three teams in the league.  And yes, the Falcons are depleted of its stars and have turned into a turnover machine.

Hmmmm.  Maybe I’d better re-think this!

No, I made the call and I’m sticking with it.  There are two main reasons.  Number one is the good old fashioned “gut feeling”.  Atlanta has been heading in a downward spiral for several weeks.  And without their top receivers or their top running back around, Mr. Ryan has not looked very good at all.  Yet, something is telling me that he’s going to figure things out this week.

I know.  I wouldn’t bet any money based solely on that reasoning either.

The main reason is that Seattle hasn’t looked very good at all over the past few weeks.  Earlier in the season, it became apparent that they were not a very good road.  Even though they were winning, they were not performing well on the road at all.

Now, they just haven’t looked good anywhere, even at home.  I mean, c’mon.  Who spots Tampa Bay 21 points at home?  Sure they came back to pull out the victory, but the red flags are now out in full color!

Again, I’m sure you think I’ve lost my marbles, but I think the Falcons surprise everyone this week and get back on the winning side of things.

This week’s Game of the Week (4-5).

I nearly went with the Bears at the Lions for this one, but decided that it would be too sloppy to live up to expectations.  So I decided to head west to one of my favorite cities.  The Denver Broncos at the San Diego Chargers.

I think the Broncos are the best team in the AFC (sorry KC, but the truth will come out over the next few weeks).  Their offense is a well-oiled machine that can put up points with seemingly no effort at all.  And their defense ain’t all that bad either.

But the Chargers have shown glimpses of a powerhouse offense this season, especially at home.  Their defense isn’t quite as good as Denver’s, so the scoring needs to be plentiful if they want to stay in this game.

I think it will be a lights out, push the scoreboard to the limits type of a game, but ultimately, the better team will prevail.  Denver will take the victory, setting up the first of two showdowns in three weeks with Kansas City.