MLB – HOMESTRETCH PREDICTIONS FOR 2012

22Aug12

Okay, now that we’re officially in the homestretch of the 2012 MLB season, I feel obligated to give my two cents worth.  I know, I know, everybody is out there right now, prognosticating (I love that word) about which teams will fade down the stretch and which teams will be this year’s version of the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

So what’s another prediction gonna hurt?

Now I could simply jump in and spout the same rhetoric that we’ve all been hearing from the experts.  You know what I mean:

  • The Washington Nationals are clearly the best team in the National League.
  • Wait a minute…don’t look past the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Nobody can beat the Texas Rangers in a seven game series.
  • You can never count the Yankees out when it comes to the playoffs.

(Wow, so this is what an expert feels like…..hmmm!)

I decided to take it one step further.  Instead of simply going with my gut feeling, I actually decided to put some work into it.

I printed out the remaining schedule for both the National League and the American League.  Then I printed out the current standings, as of end of day, Sunday 8/26/12.  Then I proceeded to pick winners and losers for every remaining game for every team.  Then I generated a spreadsheet and entered all of the data and came up with the final standings for all six divisions.

Amazingly, there were not a lot of surprises.  Although some teams finished stronger than others, the standings didn’t go through a huge amount of changes from what you are seeing right now.

Of course, you might be saying to yourself, “That should be a red flag to anyone that has been watching baseball over the past couple of seasons.  Nobody saw the Cardinals coming at this time last year.  How about the Rockies in 2007?”

Patience, patience!!  Wait to you see the results before you start criticizing.  And quick talking to yourself.  What if someone walked in on you?  They’d think you were losing it.  Then who would care what your opinion was?

Now, I didn’t go into this exercise with pre-conceived intentions of any particular team getting hot or completely falling apart.  But clearly, some teams did one or the other.

For instance, four teams won 30 out of their final 42 games.  They included Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit and Texas.  Not surprisingly, they all made the playoffs.

Only four other teams won more than 26 games.  Washington, Cincinnati and Arizona all won 28 out of 42 games.

I know, I know, Arizona?  There you go again.  Please wait until I’m finished giving you the results before you do any more complaining.  You’re really beginning to get on my nerves!

On the other end of the spectrum, a handful of teams fell completely apart.  Houston only won 6 of their final 40 games, but considering what they have done over the past 60 games, that’s less ‘falling apart’ and more ‘remaining consistent’.

Miami and Toronto both only won 11 games and San Diego and Minnesota only won 12 games.  Several other teams were in the teens for victories, but those were the worst of the worst.

A couple of the division races remained close to the finish, but only the AL West became a blowout, with Texas winning it by 15 games.

Okay, enough with the big buildup.  Here is what the final standings looked like:

NL East

Washington 103-59

Atlanta 100-62

N.Y. Mets 76-86

Philadelphia 72-90

Miami 66-96

 

NL Central

Cincinnati 102-60

St. Louis 95-67

Pittsburgh 93-69

Milwaukee 72-90

Chicago 61-101

Houston 45-117

 

NL West

Los Angeles 92-70

Arizona 90-72

San Francisco 89-73

Colorado 66-96

San Diego 58-104

 

AL East

N.Y. Yankees 98-64

Tampa Bay 92-70

Baltimore 89-73

Boston 82-80

Toronto 67-95

 

AL Central

Detroit 94-68

Chicago 86-76

Kansas City 70-92

Cleveland 68-94

Minnesota 62-100

 

AL West

Texas 100-62

Oakland 85-77

Los Angeles 82-80

Seattle 75-87

 

Now, let’s take a look at the playoffs.  First, the wild card game.  While lots of people are loving this one-game series, I think it’s ridiculous.  What you are doing is taking one more step in ensuring that the wild card teams are handcuffed.  They have to make a decision to throw their ace in the wild card game or roll the dice that they can win with a pitcher further down their rotation and save their ace for game one of the divisional.

If the intent is to make the division winners stronger, just go back to the days of no wild card teams!

(There, I feel better now!)

Results of the wild card games will be Atlanta over St. Louis (I really struggled over that one) and Tampa Bay over Baltimore (no struggle at all).

This will send Atlanta to Cincinnati, where they will be overpowered in all aspects of the game.  The Reds will win in five.

Meanwhile, Washington will struggle early with the Dodgers, but ultimately will win the series in seven.

Tampa Bay will go to Texas, where the Rangers will not waste any time, sweeping the Rays in four.

New York will have all they can handle, but will beat the Tigers in six.

Then the Reds will continue to roll as they upset the favored Nationals in six games to go to their first World Series since sweeping the Athletics back in 1990.

Following in the Reds’ footsteps will be the Rangers, who will prove, once and for all, that they are the best in the AL by beating the Yankees in five games.

The World Series will be a great show, but ultimately will be decided in game six, when the Texas Rangers pop the bubbly to celebrate their first series win in three consecutive tries.

There you have it.  Do you agree or disagree?  Did I let my allegiance to my favorite teams get in the way (neither the Red Sox nor the Diamondbacks made the playoffs)?  Do you think two other teams will meet up in the World Series?  Are you still talking to yourself?  (I’m telling you, they’re gonna put you away!)

Well, like I said, that’s my two cents worth.  Although looking back at all of the time I had to put into this, I think it’s more than two cents worth!

Regardless, those are my predictions for the MLB homestretch.  Compare them to the experts if you’d like.  Just don’t throw them away.  We can always discuss things after the real World Series is over!

Advertisements


One Response to “MLB – HOMESTRETCH PREDICTIONS FOR 2012”


  1. 1 NFL PREDICTIONS – THE ROAD TO SUPER BOWL XLVII « A View From the Nose Bleed Seats

Tell me what you think!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: